As Keila makes an exit over Yemen, the next low pressure appears in the Arabian sea in much warmer waters about 400kms off the coasts of Kerala & Karnataka. Waters in this region are about 1.8C warmer than where keila exited and lower wind shear in the area should help the LLCC develop into at least a depression. Further development is ruled out at the moment as wind shear is higher just north of 18 degrees N and with Keila just exiting water temps are much cooler as well. Current track of the Low is estimated to be in the Maharashtra/Gujarat region and should end the wet spell of the west coast for the year.
The bay will also see a new LLCC pop up just east of Sri Lanka by the 5th or 6th of November, warmer waters down south and extremely low wind shear along with the easterlies should aid development and send it spiraling North-eastwards to make landfall over the central – north Tamil Nadu coast.
The Low in the bay, if it appears on time around the 6th of Nov, will also coincide with the dry spell and weak phase of MJO, which could hinder development and the amount of rainfall the systen could generate.
staying with MJO, which has gone into a brief hibernation over the Indian ocean should be rejuvenated around the 15th of Nov. A fresh easterly wave from the far east should also help spurn another Low around the 20th of Nov.
However, another deterrent for the formation and strengthening of bay low’s is cold temperatures sweeping down from the north, waters around west Bengal and Bangladesh have already begun cooling as frigid waters flow down the Ganges into the bay. As winter envelopes more and more of the country, the bay is expected to cool down and should reach around 26 – 27 degrees by the beginning of December.
Winter again, is expected to be extremely cold this year, frigid temperatures are expected to reach half way through the country. New Delhi is expected to record near freezing or freezing temperatures this year, the first time in a decade. Hyderabad should also break new records this year. Bangalore as well is expected to have below normal temps and should reach around 9 – 10 degrees. Chennai on the other hand will also record low temps around the end of december / beginning of January, But temps are not expected to go below 16 degrees owing to warmer temps of the bay around the extreme south of the state from cross equatorial currents bringing in warmth.
